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This paper proposes an integrated safety risk assessment and decision-making method for centralized photovoltaic projects in Northwest China from the perspective of risk evolution. The proposed method incorporates three core components. First， a dual-dimensional quantitative model consisting of “static risk” and “transmitted risk” is constructed based on Bayesian networks and information entropy theory. The static risk captures the inherent potential harm of each risk node given its parent nodes’ states， while the transmitted risk quantifies the amplifying effect of risk propagation along the network using Shannon entropy. Second， a data-driven threshold determination method is developed to identify the failure criterion for each risk node. This method employs second-order difference analysis on candidate threshold percentiles obtained from Monte-Carlo simulation results， and the optimal threshold is identified at the percentile where the system behavior exhibits a critical transition. Third， a multi-strategy decision-making framework is established by integrating sensitivity analysis and value engineering theory， enabling both the identification of critical risk triggers and the selection of optimal intervention strategy portfolios that balance risk control effectiveness and cost efficiency. The proposed framework is validated through an empirical study on a centralized photovoltaic project in Northwest China. A total of 38 risk factors are identified across the design， construction， and operation phases. The Monte-Carlo simulation with 5，000 iterations yields a baseline comprehensive safety risk level of 32.527， with the 5%， 50%， and 95% percentiles being approximately 16.000， 32.457， and 49.455， respectively， indicating a symmetric risk distribution. Sensitivity analysis identifies five key risk triggers that contribute most significantly to the overall system risk: lack of experience in regional risk perception， reduction of maintenance investment， improper contractor selection， incomplete emergency plans， and failure of safety supervision mechanisms. Among four categories of intervention strategies (organizational， managerial， technical， and economic)， the optimal combination of “organizational + managerial + technical” strategies achieves the highest value index of 2.698， outperforming other combinations including the four-strategy full combination (value index 1.925). The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively identify critical risk triggers and select optimal intervention portfolios， providing both theoretical foundations and methodological support for systematic and precise safety risk management in centralized photovoltaic projects in Northwest China.
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Basic Information:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2026.0228
China Classification Code:TM615;TU714
Citation Information:
[1]Yan Liang,Liu Ping,Zhang Yu ,et al.Research on integrated safety risk assessment and decision-making methods for centralized photovoltaic projects in Northwest China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment().DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2026.0228.
Fund Information:
甘肃省建投科技项目（JTKJ-2023-06）; 国家自然科学基金项目（72461019）
2026-09-07
2026-09-07
2026-09-07