| 253 | 0 | 75 |
| Downloads | Citas | Reads |
This study introduces a risk analysis method, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis-Extended Triangular Intuitionistic Fuzzy Information Axiomatic Design(FMEA-ETIFIAD), to address the limitations of traditional risk assessment techniques in railway hazardous goods transportation systems. The method incorporates three key innovations to enhance conventional FMEA. First, Triangular Intuitive Fuzzy Numbers(TIFNs) are employed to evaluate the severity(S), occurrence probability(O), and detection possibility(D) of each risk sub-indicator, replacing the traditional discrete real-number scoring system. This fuzzy approach incorporates membership, non-membership, and hesitation values, thereby minimizing information loss and effectively managing uncertainties. Second, the method calculates the information content of S, O, and D using the Information Axiom(IA), moving away from the traditional Risk Priority Number(RPN) that relies on linear multiplication. This modification resolves the issue of multiple risk levels being assigned identical RPNs. Third, the Entropy Weight Method(EWM) is applied to objectively determine the weights of risk sub-indicators based on historical accident data from the Chinese railway hazardous goods transportation system(1985-2017), thereby eliminating biases associated with subjective expert judgments. A case study was conducted utilizing data from the Chinese railway hazardous goods transportation system. Three experts from Southwest Jiaotong University and the Chengdu Railway Bureau assessed the risk sub-indicators using TIFNs. The data were processed using MATLAB R2012b and Microsoft Excel 2013 VB to compute the information content of each risk factor. Results indicate that personnel risk(H) holds the highest total information content(1.448 342 59), followed by equipment risk(M1, 1.229 193 54), cargo risk(M2, 0.967 631 42), management risk(M3, 0.788 793 21), and environmental risk(E, 0.764 327 26). Critical sub-indicators include insufficient technical knowledge of staff, equipment failure, hazardous goods handling, and inadequate railway infrastructure. A comparison with traditional FMEA demonstrates that the FMEA-ETIFIAD method effectively distinguishes risk levels in cases exhibiting identical RPNs and provides a more reliable risk assessment that aligns closely with actual accident data.
[1] 中国国家铁路局.铁路安全风险分级管控和隐患排查治理管理办法[M].北京：中国国家铁路局，2022.National Railway Administration of China.Measures for the hierarchical control of railway safety risks and the identification and remediation of hazards[M].Beijing:National Railway Administration of China,2022.
[2] 戴云徽，韩之俊，朱海荣.故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)研究进展[J].中国质量，2007(10):23-26.Dai Yunhui,Han Zhijun,Zhu Hairong.FMEA theories and methods:review on research progress[J].China Quality,2007(10):23-26.
[3] 王海燕，钟小敏.基于MORT的“桑吉”轮溢油事故致因分析[J].安全与环境学报，2020,20(5):1624-1630.Wang Haiyan,Zhong Xiaomin.Causative analysis of the oil spill accident of “Sanchi” oil carrier based on the management oversight and the risk tree[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2020,20(5):1624-1630.
[4] Tsai M C.Constructing a logistics tracking system for preventing smuggling risk of transit containers[J].Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice,2006,40(6):526-536.
[5] Bowles J B,Peláez C E.Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures in a system failure mode,effects and criticality analysis[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,1995,50(2):203-213.
[6] 辛昱，郑金忠，张梁，等.基于AHP-FMEA的航材仓库选址合理性评价研究[J].兵工自动化，2016,35(6):80-83,93.Xin Yu,Zheng Jinzhong,Zhang Liang,et al.Rationality evaluation of air materiel warehouse location selection based on AHP-FMEA[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2016,35(6):80-83,93.
[7] Casado R S G R,Silva M M,Silva L C.Multi-criteria decision model for risk prioritisation involving multiple decision-makers:an application of composition of probabilistic preferences combined with FMEA in the supply chain[J].International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management,2023,40(3):709-726.
[8] 江荣汉，屈梁材，陈宗穆，等.高压互感器故障模式与影响分析[J].湖南大学学报，1989,16(3):1-7.Jiang Ronghan,Qu Liangcai,Chen Zongmu,et al.Failure mode and effect analysis for high voltage instrument transformer[J].Journal of Hunan University,1989,16(3):1-7.
[9] 吴耀男，林雷，任新温，等.一种基于逻辑结构数的改进型FMEA方法[J].中国安全科学学报，2021,31(10):97-104.Wu Yaonan,Lin Lei,Ren Xinwen,et al.An improved FMEA method based on logical structure number[J].China Safety Science Journal,2021,31(10):97-104.
[10] 孙延浩，张琦，袁志明，等.基于二维二元语义和前景理论的改进FMEA法[J].计算机集成制造系统，2021,27(12):3439-3449.Sun Yanhao,Zhang Qi,Yuan Zhiming,et al.Improved FMEA based on 2-dimension 2-tuplelinguistic and prospect theory[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2021,27(12):3439-3449.
[11] 赵正洲，李爱华，马如宏，等.基于熵与模糊GRA的岸桥加高施工过程的改进FMEA方法[J].机械设计与研究，2022,38(5):201-204,214.Zhao Zhengzhou,Li Aihua,Ma Ruhong,et al.An improved FMEA method of quay crane heightening based on entropy and fuzzy GRA[J].Machine Design and Research,2022,38(5):201-204,214.
[12] Cansu D,Elifcan G,Müfide N,et al.Classical and fuzzy FMEA risk analysis in a sterilization unit[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2016,101:286-294.
[13] Shu M H,Cheng C H,Chang Jingrong.Using intuitionistic fuzzy sets for fault-tree analysis on printed circuit board assembly[J].Microelectronics Reliability,2006,46(12):2139-2148.
[14] 黄文成，帅斌，张光亚.基于改进的WBS-RBS识别铁路危险品运输风险[J].中国安全科学学报，2018,28(8):93-99.Huang Wencheng,Shuai Bin,Zhang Guangya.Improved WBS-RBS based identification of risks in railway transportation of dangerous goods[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(8):93-99.
[15] 黄文成，帅斌，庞璐，等.基于耦合协调度的道路危险品运输系统风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报，2016,26(6):117-122.Huang Wencheng,Shuai Bin,Pang Lu,et al.Research on coupling coordination degree based method for assessing risk in road dangerous goods transport system[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(6):117-122.
[16] GB 6944—2012 危险货物品类和品名编号[S].GB 6944—2012 Classification and code numbers of dangerous goods[S].
[17] Suh N P.Axiomatic design:advances and applications[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2001.
[18] Suh N P.The principles of design[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1990.
[19] Saini N,Bajaj R K,Gandotra N,et al.Multi-criteria decision making with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number based on distance measure & parametric entropy approach [J].Procedia Computer Science.2018,125:34-41.
[20] Zhang Xin,Liu Peide.Method for aggregating triangular fuzzy intuitionistic fuzzy information and its application to decision making[J].Technological and Economic Development of Economy,2010,16(2):280-290.
[21] Kahraman C,Cebi S,Onar S C,et al.A novel trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy information axiom approach:an application to multicriteria landfill site selection[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2018,67:157-172.
[22] Kahraman C,Cevik O S,Cebi S,et al.Extension of information axiom from ordinary to intuitionistic fuzzy sets:an application to search algorithm selection[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2017,105:348-361.
[23] Kahraman C,Cebi S.A new multi-attribute decision making method:hierarchical fuzzy axiomatic design[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(3):4848-4861.
[24] Shannon C E,Weaver W.The mathematical theory of communication[M].Urbana:The University of Illinois Press,1947.
[25] Huang Wencheng,Shuai Bin,Sun Yan,et al.Using entropy-TOPSIS method to evaluate urban rail transit system operation performance:the China case[J].Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice.2018,111:292-303.
[26] Huang Wencehgn,Shuai Bin,Zuo Borui,et al.A systematic railway dangerous goods transportation system risk analysis approach:the 24 model[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019,61:94-103.
[27] Huang Wencheng,Shuai Bin,Sun Yan.Study on Coupling risk formation mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation system based on N-K model[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2019,41(5):1-9.
[28] Huang Wencheng,Zhang Yue.Railway dangerous goods transportation system risk assessment:an approach combining FMEA with pessimistic-optimistic fuzzy information axiom considering acceptable risk coefficient[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2021,70(1):371-388.
[29] Huang Wencheng,Li Yueyang,Kou Xingyi,et al.Using a FMEA-TIFIAD approach to identify the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation system[J].Group Decision and Negotiation,2021,30:63-95.
[30] Huang Wencehgn,Zhang Yue,Kou Xingyi,et al.Railway dangerous goods transportation system risk analysis:an Interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network combining approach[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2020,204:107220.
Basic Information:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1289
China Classification Code:U298
Citation Information:
[1]Chong Pengyun,Yao Mian,Huang Wencheng.Risk analysis for railway dangerous goods transportation system based on a FMEA-ETIFIAD approach[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2026,26(08):2946-2958.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1289.
Fund Information:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72571223);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72001179); 四川省科技厅面上项目(24NSFSC0526)
2026-04-24
2026-04-24
2026-04-24